Just eight weeks prior when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while the Villa manager berated him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. Back then, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were an indicator or the source of the team's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, though, the manager's outburst was decidedly more positive. As the England international swept in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician tore off his coat, spread his arms and roared. Villa were on their way to a 10th successive win , despite not winning any of their first six games, find themselves just three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Hopefuls?
It remains a particularly tough question to address. The historical record, the perceived status of Villa, suggests not. Moreover, they have not been entirely convincing in many games, even as the victories have stacked up.
Per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the team posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a team which has strung together 10 in a row, Villa appear curiously susceptible – however currently the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy appears to be to trade blows with the opposition and then rely on their talisman to save the day with some crisp finishes. This was the case against Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and again versus United.
The initial strike came from a brilliant finish, arced just inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opponents registered more shots and more direct attempts. Villa have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival the club must confront as the season progresses. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot maintain thrashing his shots into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is a different scenario in which, rather than results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures might still return to peak condition.
- The main striker may begin to finding the net regularly.
- The winger might become the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are set to regain fitness, bolstering a sometimes shaky defence.
This could contain the potential for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
However, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Aston Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And certainly earlier this season, no one envisioned Rogers now would be spearheading a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial player for the national team.
The current run should be enjoyed for the very reason that it seems so surreal. As Rogers faced the home supporters after the match conducting the cheers, he appeared to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. Such periods are rare in football and must be appreciated.
